一种空间目标轨道状态动态推理方法

doi:10.19665/j.issn1001-2400.2020.03.010

Abstract

Abstract:

Aiming at the uncertainty of the orbit status of non-cooperative space objects, a dynamic inference method for the orbit status of space objects based on dynamic Bayesian networks is proposed. First, the semantic model for the orbit status of space objects is established, and the semantic relationships such as the orbit status, orbit class and orbit change are explained. Second, the orbit status characteristics are analyzed, and the hierarchical division method for coplanar and noncoplanar orbit change is constructed. Then, based on the dynamic Bayesian network, an inference method for the orbit status of space objects is established, and the relationships between orbit status, orbit class, and orbit change are used to obtain the dynamic change process of the orbit status. Finally, the proposed method is validated by comparing with actual situations of space objects of different orbital classes. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed dynamic inference method for the orbit status of space objects can inference the orbit status with uncertainty and obtain the change process, which provides support and assistance for further decision-making.

Key words: space object, orbit status, orbit change, Bayesian networks, dynamic analysis, inference

CLC Number:

LU Wanjie,LAN Chaozhen,LV Liang,SHI Qunshan,XU Qing. Dynamic inference method for the orbit status of space objects[J].Journal of Xidian University, 2020, 47(3): 72-79.

Figures/Tables 8

序号	数据序列	评价变量	时间片
1	$S 1 X$ ={Δ $O 1 X$ , Δ $O 2 X$ , Δ $O 3 X$ , …, Δ $O m X$ }	Δ $O m + 1 X$	m+1
2	$S 2 X$ ={Δ $O 2 X$ , Δ $O 3 X$ , Δ $O 4 X$ , …, Δ $O m + 1 X$ }	Δ $O m + 2 X$	m+2
?	?	?	?
r	$S r X$ ={Δ $O r X$ , Δ $O r + 1 X$ , Δ $O r + 2 X$ , …, Δ $O m + r - 1 X$ }	Δ $O m + r X$	m+r
?	?	?	?
L-m	$S L - m X$ ={Δ $O L - m X$ , Δ $O L - m + 1 X$ , Δ $O L - m + 2 X$ , …, Δ $O L - 1 X$ }	Δ $O L X$	L

References 19

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轨道类型	轨道状态
轨道类型	轨道扰动	轨道维持	轨道机动
GEO	0.8031	0.1396	0.0573
MEO	0.7037	0.2331	0.0632
LEO	0.6771	0.2774	0.0455

轨道状态	共面变轨			异面变轨
轨道状态	小	中	大	小	中	大
轨道扰动	0.9282	0.0419	0.0299	0.9169	0.0468	0.0363
轨道维持	0.8618	0.0738	0.0644	0.8864	0.0611	0.0525
轨道机动	0.5779	0.0991	0.3230	0.7238	0.0822	0.1940

轨道类型	轨道状态 (t时间片)	轨道状态(t+1时间片)
轨道类型	轨道状态 (t时间片)	轨道扰动	轨道维持	轨道机动
GEO	轨道扰动	0.8646	0.0851	0.0503
	轨道维持	0.5996	0.3321	0.0683
	轨道机动	0.4361	0.4355	0.1284
MEO	轨道扰动	0.8448	0.1154	0.0398
	轨道维持	0.4029	0.5189	0.0782
	轨道机动	0.2408	0.4907	0.2685
LEO	轨道扰动	0.8234	0.1519	0.0247
	轨道维持	0.4054	0.5434	0.0512
	轨道机动	0.1541	0.5233	0.3226

NORAD ID	目标名称	轨道类型	TLE历史数据的时间范围
43600	AEOLUS	LEO	2019 09 01 23:00:00 ~ 2019 09 04 18:00:00
35752	NAVSTAR 64	MEO	2019 02 20 07:00:00 ~ 2019 02 26 17:00:00
38551	ECHOSTAR 17	GEO	2012 07 08 04:00:00 ~ 2012 07 13 09:00:00

Dynamic inference method for the orbit status of space objects

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