基于时效因子和动态贝叶斯络的配电室电力应急演练研究

doi:10.16180/j.cnki.issn1007-7820.2024.03.008

Abstract

Abstract:

In view of the situation that the emergency work of the distribution room is facing severe challenges due to frequent disasters,this paper conducts a study on the power disaster accident scenario inference technology of power distribution room.Based on the analysis of the suddenness and variability of the power distribution room disasters, the uncertainty and complexity of the evolution path, the "scenario-response" analysis method is used to analyze the components of the power distribution room accidents and their relationships, and the scenario rehearsal model of the power distribution room disasters is constructed based on the dynamic Bayesian network. The effect evaluation of drill is carried out based on the principle of timeliness. A 6 kV power distribution room fire accident in a mining company is conducted case analysis. The results show that the simulation results are consistent with the actual disaster development situation, which indicates the feasibility of the power distribution room disaster scenario model.

Key words: power distribution room, emergency work in the power distribution room, scenario projection, electrical disasters, scenario-response, dynamic Bayesian networks, timeliness, extrapolation model

CLC Number:

TP13

XU Hao, WEI Yunbing, LU Yongxin, LI Qin. Research on Power Emergency Drills in Power Distribution Rooms Based on Time-Sensitive Factors and Dynamic Bayesian Networks[J].Electronic Science and Technology, 2024, 37(3): 57-67.

Figures/Tables 15

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情景状态 S	应急(预期) 目标G		处置措施 M
632断路器出线电缆短路起火S₁	杜绝长时间的短路电流通过配电室内电气设备G₁		跳开总进线断路器M₁
632断路器柜内弧光放电S₂	杜绝相邻线路提供短路电流G₂		跳开相邻断路器M₂
632断路器柜起火S₃	632断路器柜火势被扑灭G₃		利用CO₂泡沫灭火器扑灭已出现明火M₃
		事故消失S₄
存在电缆内短路电流, 母线电缆沟起火S₅	扑灭电缆沟明火G₄		利用CO₂泡沫灭火器堵截消灭电缆沟明火M₄
		事故消失S₆
相邻断路器柜起火S₇	控制火势范围G₅		利用CO₂泡沫灭火器控制相邻断路器明火范围M₅
火势稳定S₈	相邻断路器柜火势被扑灭G₆		利用CO₂泡沫堵扑灭相邻断路器明火M₆
		事故消失S₉
设备损坏,配电室浓烟聚集, 无法进入开展后续作业,供电无法恢复S₁₀	有条件开展排烟作业,为现场恢复供电创造条件G₇		启动排烟操作M₇
		事故消失S₁₁

处置措施M、应急目标G 以及情景状态S的情况	状态情况以及概率	对应状态情况以及概率	处置措施M、应急目标G 以及情景状态S的情况	状态情况以及概率	对应状态情况以及概率
M₁	True	False	S₅	G₁=True M₄=True G₂= False	G₁=True M₄=False G₂= True
	0.96	0.04	True	0.75	0.3
S₁	M₁= True	M₁= False	False	0.25	0.7
True	0.90	0.95	S₅	G₁=True M₄=False G₂= False	G₁=False M₄=True G₂=True
False	0.10	0.05	True	0.65	0.6
G₁	S₁= True	S₁=False	False	0.35	0.4
True	0.90	0.85	S₅	G₁=False M₄=True G₂= False	G₁=False M₄=False G₂=True
False	0.10	0.15	True	0.60	0.3
M₂	True	False	False	0.40	0.7
	0.95	0.05	G₄	S₅=True	S₅=False

处置措施M、应急目标G 以及情景状态S的情况	状态情况以及概率	对应状态情况以及概率	处置措施M、应急目标G 以及情景状态S的情况	状态情况以及概率	对应状态情况以及概率
S₂	G₁=True M₂=True	G₁=False M₂=False	True	0.85	0.20
True	0.7	0.3	False	0.15	0.80
False	0.3	0.7	S₆	G₄=True	G₄= False
S₂	G₁=True M₂=False	G₁=False M₂=True	True	0.90	0.15
True	0.6	0.6	False	0.10	0.85
False	0.4	0.4	M₅	True	False
G₂	S₂=True	S₂=False		0.88	0.12
True	0.8	0.3	S₇	G₄=True M₅= True G₃=True	G₄=False M₅=False G₃=False
False	0.2	0.7	True	0.75	0.35
M₃	True	False	False	0.25	0.65
	0.9	0.1	S₇	G₄=True M₅= True G₃=False	G₄=True M₅= False G₃=True

处置措施M、应急目标G 以及情景状态S的情况	状态情况以及概率	对应状态情况以及概率	处置措施M、应急目标G 以及情景状态S的情况	状态情况以及概率	对应状态情况以及概率
S₃	G₂=True M₃=True	G₂=False M₃=False	True	0.60	0.30
True	0.70	0.70	False	0.40	0.70
False	0.30	0.30	S₇	G₄=True M₅=False G₃=False	G₄=False M₅=True G₃=True
S₃	G₂=True M₃=False	G₂=False M₃=True	True	0.65	0.60
True	0.65	0.60	False	0.35	0.40
False	0.35	0.40	S₇	G₄=False M₅=True G₃=False	G₄=False M₅=False G₃=True
G₃	S₃=True	S₃=False	True	0.73	0.40
True	0.75	0.40	False	0.27	0.60
False	0.25	0.60	G₅	S₇=True	S₇=False
S₄	G₂=True	G₂= False	True	0.85	0.70
True	0.75	0.40	False	0.15	0.30
False	0.25	0.60	M₆	True	False
M₄	True	False		0.95	0.05
	0.89	0.11	S₈	G₅=True M₆=True	G₅=False M₆=False

处置措施M、应急目标G 以及情景状态S的情况	状态情况以及概率	对应状态情况以及概率	处置措施M、应急目标G 以及情景状态S的情况	状态情况以及概率	对应状态情况以及概率
S₅	G₁=True M₄=True G₂=True	G₁=False M₄=False G₂=False	True	0.85	0.15
True	0.80	0.20	False	0.15	0.85
False	0.20	0.80	S₈	G₅=True M₆=False	G₅=False M₆=True
True	0.80	0.80	S₁₀	G₅=True M₇=False G₆=False	G₅=False M₇= True G₆=True
False	0.20	0.20	True	0.65	0.60
G₆	S₈=True	S₈= False	False	0.35	0.40
True	0.80	0.30	S₁₀	G₅=False M₇=True G₆=False	G₅=False M₇=False G₆=True
False	0.20	0.70	True	0.85	0.35
S₉	G₆=True	G₆= False	False	0.15	0.65
True	0.80	0.40	G₇	S₇=True	S₇=False
False	0.20	0.60	True	0.75	0.30
M₇	True	False	False	0.25	0.70
	0.83	0.17	S₁₁	G₇=True	G₇= False
S₁₀	G₅=True M₇=True G₆= True	G₅=False M₇=False G₆= False	True	0.80	0.40
True	0.85	0.04	False	0.20	0.60
False	0.15	0.96
S₁₀	G₅=True M₇= True G₆=False	G₅=True M₇= False G₆=True
True	0.80	0.06
False	0.20	0.94

Research on Power Emergency Drills in Power Distribution Rooms Based on Time-Sensitive Factors and Dynamic Bayesian Networks

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