基于优化灰色傅里叶残差修正的中长期负荷预测

doi:10.16180/j.cnki.issn1007-7820.2021.12.009

Abstract

Abstract:

In view of the problem of low accuracy of mid- and long-term load forecasting in power systems, a gray Fourier residual correction modified particle swarm optimization model for mid- and long-term power load forecasting is proposed. The model uses a three-point smoothing method to preprocess the original load data to weaken the influence of outliers. The gray model of improved particle swarm optimization is adopted to predict the original load, which solves the problems of insufficient forecast data and low forecast accuracy. Fourier transform corrects the prediction error and greatly improves the prediction accuracy. The results of the annual load forecasting in a certain area of Zhejiang from 2013 to 2018 show that the average load forecasting accuracy has increased by 1.94%, which indicates that the model has high accuracy and feasibility in medium and long-term load forecasting.

Key words: load forecasting, gray model, particle swarm, Fourier, residual correction, three-point smoothing method, preprocessing, Fourier transfor

CLC Number:

TM715

ZHU Jian'an,WEI Yunbing,ZHU Pengjie,JIANG Chengcheng,ZHU Chengming. Medium and Long-Term Load Forecasting Based on Optimized Grey Fourier Residual Correction[J].Electronic Science and Technology, 2021, 34(12): 49-55.

Figures/Tables 8

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References 18

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年份	负荷/TW·h	年份	负荷/TW·h	年份	负荷/TW·h
2001	27.36	2007	50.46	2013	81.88
2002	32.58	2008	55.69	2014	87.71
2003	36.78	2009	61.35	2015	91.21
2004	38.47	2010	64.58	2016	98.31
2005	42.76	2011	67.63	2017	104.07
2006	46.25	2012	75.25	2018	108.95

年份	负荷/TW·h	年份	负荷/TW·h
2001	28.67	2007	50.72
2002	32.33	2008	55.78
2003	36.15	2009	60.74
2004	39.12	2010	64.54
2005	42.56	2011	68.77
2006	46.43	2012	73.35

年份	原始负荷 /TW·h	GM(1,1)	Error /%	平滑 GM(1,1)	Error /%	RWPSO- GM(1,1)	Error /%	FR-RWPSO- GM(1.1)	Error /%
2013	81.88	81.82	-0.07	81.27	-0.74	80.35	-1.87	80.16	-2.10
2014	87.71	88.73	1.20	88.04	0.38	86.65	-1.21	86.77	-1.07
2015	91.21	96.22	5.50	95.38	4.57	93.44	2.44	90.39	-0.9
2016	98.31	104.34	6.10	103.33	5.12	100.77	2.50	99.84	1.56
2017	104.07	113.14	8.72	111.95	7.57	108.66	4.41	106.54	2.37
2018	108.95	122.69	11.90	120.28	10.4	117.18	7.55	112.92	3.64
平均精度			5.58		4.80		3.52		1.94

Medium and Long-Term Load Forecasting Based on Optimized Grey Fourier Residual Correction

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